Donziweasel
11-16-2010, 04:57 PM
So, when you live in the Rockies in the winter, your life pretty much revolves around snow. Lack of snow, a coming storm, huge powder, no snow, big snow, etc..... I know, it is a strange life. We look at the weather channel, NOAA, and about a dozen forecast websites. Of course, you also look at other ski resorts sites to see what they are getting compared to you.
Now, the three biggest snow years I have seen out here (605 inches, 550 inches, 550 inches, but some areas around here got over 700 during these years), were all La Nina. Oh the cooling of the Pacific, how we love you!!!!! Always big snow on La Nina years. There is a STRONG La Nina in the Pacific forecast to hang around till spring. Here is the NOAA La Nina forecast-
"Consistent with nearly all ENSO forecast models (Fig. 6), La Niña is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011. A large majority of models also predict La Niña to become a strong episode (defined by a 3-month average Niño-3.4 index of –1.5oC or colder) by the November-January season before gradually weakening. A few of the models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), suggest that La Niña could persist into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011. However, no particular outcome is favored beyond the Northern Hemisphere spring due to large model disagreement and lower model skill during the period."
Likely La Niña impacts during November 2010-January 2011 include suppressed convection over the central tropical Pacific Ocean, and enhanced convection over Indonesia. Expected impacts in the United States include an enhanced chance of above-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies (along with a concomitant increase in snowfall), and Ohio Valley, while below-average precipitation is most likely across the south-central and southeastern states. An increased chance of below-average temperatures is predicted for coastal and near-coastal regions of the northern West Coast, and a higher possibility of above-average temperatures is expected for much of the southern and central U.S. (see 3-month seasonal outlook released on October 21st, 2010)."
So, for you guys who have been waiting for whatever to plan a winter trip, this is the year for the Northern Rockies!!!! Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!!! Got plenty of available weeks at the Lazy P if anyone is interested in visiting Jackson Hole. I know Hedgehog and Last Real Texan will be making their annual migration out here. Fixall threatens every year to teach me how to snowmobile, but so far, Mike is all talk!:bonk:
76 inches on the year already, now that is a start!!!!! :)
Now, the three biggest snow years I have seen out here (605 inches, 550 inches, 550 inches, but some areas around here got over 700 during these years), were all La Nina. Oh the cooling of the Pacific, how we love you!!!!! Always big snow on La Nina years. There is a STRONG La Nina in the Pacific forecast to hang around till spring. Here is the NOAA La Nina forecast-
"Consistent with nearly all ENSO forecast models (Fig. 6), La Niña is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011. A large majority of models also predict La Niña to become a strong episode (defined by a 3-month average Niño-3.4 index of –1.5oC or colder) by the November-January season before gradually weakening. A few of the models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), suggest that La Niña could persist into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011. However, no particular outcome is favored beyond the Northern Hemisphere spring due to large model disagreement and lower model skill during the period."
Likely La Niña impacts during November 2010-January 2011 include suppressed convection over the central tropical Pacific Ocean, and enhanced convection over Indonesia. Expected impacts in the United States include an enhanced chance of above-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies (along with a concomitant increase in snowfall), and Ohio Valley, while below-average precipitation is most likely across the south-central and southeastern states. An increased chance of below-average temperatures is predicted for coastal and near-coastal regions of the northern West Coast, and a higher possibility of above-average temperatures is expected for much of the southern and central U.S. (see 3-month seasonal outlook released on October 21st, 2010)."
So, for you guys who have been waiting for whatever to plan a winter trip, this is the year for the Northern Rockies!!!! Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!!! Got plenty of available weeks at the Lazy P if anyone is interested in visiting Jackson Hole. I know Hedgehog and Last Real Texan will be making their annual migration out here. Fixall threatens every year to teach me how to snowmobile, but so far, Mike is all talk!:bonk:
76 inches on the year already, now that is a start!!!!! :)