Dow crests 10k yesterday, too soon?

[chappy]

Just curious what everyone thinks about the Dow shooting up to 10k again. Pretty quick in my eyes.

Anyone see a little bubble burst on the horizon?

Oil is shooting up quicker than Kurt Cobain as well. I know the dollar is weakening, so the commodities market is a good shelter, but I'm thinking the oil run may be short lived?

I was interested in some members takes here, I know some of you really study and understand (:eek:) this Wall Street stuff.

[tmh]

I question whether foreign money is pushing the market to some extent as a result of the weaker dollar. In 2-3 weeks earnings announcements will be over and I believe reality of the poor economy will set in. I bet the farm on oil 2 weeks ago and don't know when I should bail. As Mr. Greenspan said, irrational exuberance with this weak economy.
T.M. Hayes

[FISHIN SUCKS]

So I have heard the same thing about the bubble busting before years end and the dow droppin' hard. Supposed reason is that companies have cut their bottom line, but have not been able to grow their top line, resulting in a fictitious profit (if you will). If this is the case, should I pull my 401k before takin a hit? I only lost about 15% the last time, but am up about 22% from my recent low (-15%).

[tmh]

It seems to me that the economy was much healthier with low unemployment and stronger sales and profit margins back in 2004 when the Dow made it through 10k. I don't see the economy getting much better in the near future as I sense a large reluctance to spend money by businesses and individuals caused by the current administration appearing anti business/anti capitalism, the push towards socialism, and the uncertainty caused by massive deficits that don't appear to be waning. I believe this economy is our new way of life for some time, but then what do I know. If that ends up being the case then the market should correct when earnings can't improve. I watch the market constantly being prepared to dump everything at anytime and I'm heavily concentrated in energy as I hope it will hold up better when the market turns, or if somebody decides to hit Iran.
T.M. Hayes

[Kirbyvv]

The Dow is up, but so is unemployment, based on the updated numbers I saw today. Something doesn't make sense here :nilly:

[chappy]

Read this this AM, I guess the industry experts are torn as well;



Analysts Are Split on Direction of Oil Prices, Survey Shows

By Blake Ellis
Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News were split over whether crude oil prices will rise or fall next week amid above-average inventories and prices that are the highest in a year.
Twelve of 31 analysts, or 39 percent, said futures will drop through Oct. 23. Another 12 respondents predicted that oil will rise. Seven said futures will be little changed. Last week, 38 percent of analysts said prices would fall.
“The bulls are saying it doesn’t matter about current supplies, that demand is going to go up,” said Phil Flynn (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Phil+Flynn&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “Bears are saying that we have a glut of supplies and these prices are unsustainable.”
Crude oil stockpiles (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DOESCRUD%3AIND) rose 334,000 barrels to 337.8 million last week, according to a U.S. Energy Department report yesterday. The gain left inventories 9.6 percent higher than the five-year average for the period. Fuel demand (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DOEDTPRD%3AIND) rose 1.1 percent to an average of 18.9 million barrels a day.
Crude oil for November delivery rose $5.81, or 8.1 percent, to $77.58 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday’s settlement was the highest since Oct. 14, 2008. Futures are up 74 percent this year.
The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 47 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.


Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conductedeach Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oilfutures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the comingweek. The results were:

RISE 12

NEUTRAL 7

FALL 12

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