Stock Market woes... what do you think ?

[Lenny]

I have read in the last couple days, that there are not enough investors to keep the Markets alive and next week we will see an even more serious dive. Ours (TSX in Canada) was basically par with yours (DOW) Still is and we have seen almost identical gains and losses and we sit very close to your index now.

What do you think of this statement?

We threw $20K at it a couple months ago thinking we were at the bottom.

WRONG

Your thoughts on this and where it will go...

[fogducker III]

My overall portfolio is 64% down.........:garfield:

I can not see any light until the average person gets some confidence back in government, banks and big businesses in general......kinda in limbo eh?

[BUIZILLA]

ok, so you asked... i'm not putting up a poll vote on this :lookaroun:

my thought is this.... :crossfing:

NOBODY knows... :confused:

absolutely NOBODY has a clue :nilly:

some of us will get creamed :frown:

some will make cream :yes:

strictly depends on your luck :starfish:

my luck has not been very good :bonk:

I gave instructions yesterday to my advisors to move to money markets everywhere, and sit tight on that for 2 years... :cool:

[Marlin275]

When all of the bad news seems the worst and there is no hope . . .
the stock market will take off and the bulls will rush in.
That is how a true bottom is made.

There are historic, huge amounts of cash sitting on the side
just waiting for such an opportunity.

[roadtrip se]

so okay, it sucks. And, I am with Jim, no one really knows what is next on the rollercoaster. I am not going on the poll either, because who frickin' knows.

Now. This is not politically driven, and I would ask that those that reply looking to talk about the acension of Mao to the Presidency, go elsewhere.

What advice are you getting about where to put your money? I have mine sitting in bonds for right now.

Any better ideas out there?

Lenny, what is Deneen saying?

We are in danger of selling our Michigan house, knocking on forehead, and I am hopefully going to have a bunch of cash that needs to go some place.

Ideas please, save the BS....

[txtaz]

We moved almost eveything into money markets about a year ago. Bought medical stocks and funds in July (they are holding their own) and waiting for the bottom between 6500 and 7000. I think it will happen June-July time frame. Then heavy investing in markets that are recovering and land. Then not looking at statements for at least 2 years (better for the blood pressure).

Mrs. Taz freaked :nilly: when she saw her trust statement. I just reminded her she can't touch it for another 30 years. All's good now.:yes:

Da Taz

[txtaz]

To reply to Ducky Boy....

Gold, Silver, Money Market fund and more bonds (make sure it's not an unstable entity) like CA refinance bonds. Also if you don't need the money any time soon, wait till the middle of summer and buy land, preferably commercial and close to a market or metro area.

If you dabble into funds or stocks go with the standards (medical, pharmacudicals, etc). Not to hit close to home but some markets are too risky for my money EVEN if they are being subsidized by our money (taxes).

Wells Fargo is one of the stronger banks so their CD's and funds are safe. To prove it, their rates are LOW but no risk.

Da Taz<---Yeah I've got good guys behind me.

[Lenny]

Lenny, what is Deneen saying?



She is freaked. Keep in mind she holds a ton of other peoples money only to give them the "bad news" everyday. The people that I really feel sorry for are the ones retired that no longer can draw what they have historically been used to. And the fact that they will now run out of money during their retirement. Pretty hard to get a job in this economy when you are 80 years old.

She has shown me all this stuff I do not understand ( I try to stay awake :D ) What I got out of that was DO NOT SELL, ride out the storm, and wait and watch for the recovery which historically has happened a half dozen times in the past.
Actually, she has been in Calgary and Vancouver for a couple weeks learning more "stuff" to apply to her clients accounts and provide guidance. We'll see. I will let you know what she thinks once she gets off the plane at noon. :)

We are mimicking your Market perfectly.

http://www.tmxmoney.com/en/index.html

[Air 22]

Gold this morning $999.50/ounce...

@ 13:09pm INDP 7279.17 Ouuuuuuuuuch:nilly: Heading below 7000....

[fogducker III]

So my stock in Merrill Lynch Canada was swapped over to Bank of America stock after the buy out...........:garfield::nilly:


12:05 PM ET, February 20, 2009


NEW YORK, Feb 20, 2009 (Xinhua via COMTEX) -- U.S. stocks slid further on Friday morning as investors around the world grew more concerned about the deteriorating economy.
http://imagen03.247realmedia.com/RealMedia/ads/Creatives/default/empty.gif/0 (http://network-ca.247realmedia.com/RealMedia/ads/click_lx.ads/TMXMoney.com/1787195699/Position3/default/empty.gif/32503659716b696a4459304142303041)
Financials led the way down again on Friday. Shares of Bank of America Corp and Citigroup Inc plunged for the sixth straight day. Bank of America fell 17 percent to 3.26 U.S. dollars, while Citigroup slid 19.52 percent to 2.02 dollars.
The market tumbled as the uncertainty about how government would remove banks' bad assets is still weighing. The financial stability plan announced by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner last week was not specific enough to boost investors' confidence in the financial system.
Disappointing corporate earnings results added to the pessimism of the market. Both Lowe's and J.C. Penney missed fourth-quarter earnings expectations as the slumping economy hurt U.S. businesses. They also warned that 2009 earnings forecast is below analysts' expectations.
In economic news, the U.S. Labor Department reported Friday that consumer prices rose by 0.3 percent last month, the biggest monthly increase since a 0.7 percent rise in July.
The Dow Jones fell 125.45, or 1.68 percent, to 7,340.50. Broader indexes also slip. The Standard & Poor's 500 index tumbled 14.04, or 1.80 percent, to 764.90; and the Nasdaq slid 8.24, or 0. 57 percent, to 1,434.58.
Copyright 2009 XINHUA NEWS AGENCY

[Conquistador_del_mar]

The people that I really feel sorry for are the ones retired that no longer can draw what they have historically been used to. And the fact that they will now run out of money during their retirement. Pretty hard to get a job in this economy when you are 80 years old.

That is one of my greatest concerns, too. In fact, just this week my family decided to move all my father's money out of the stock market to assure he can afford to live out his life in the facility where he is presently located. Many are no so fortunate. Bill

[MOP]

My advice it get out of the market, do some web searching on what economists have to say about stimulus packages it will enlighten you. Most of the net work news will not give you the true picture, it has failed time and time again. I got out in October, I called my son on a Thursday to get out he said lets wait until Monday. Well Monday came and I lost 30% in those few days, I told Bonnie to get out she listened to here broker and now is down $70,000. Put it under your mattress you will need it as it will be getting a lot tighter, now is not the time to dream and trust! Think very carefully about the "GIMMEE" generation that many have helped to raise, when they get tight they will be coming for what you have! Oh if you don't own a gun you damn well better get one, this is no time for optimism be prepared!

[Lenny]

That was sure uplifting Phil. I'm gonna go find me a razor blade now...

[chappy]

Some of this is starting to sound/feel like the Y2K scare. I'm leaning toward Marlin's assessment above. Things suck, that's for sure, but I don't believe the sky is falling.







Not yet at least.:lookaroun:

[roadtrip se]

Use a kitchen knife Len, they're longer and sharper.

So MOP, are you sleeping on your money? If so, I suggest something shoulder-mounted, because the Gimmes have to be coming....

And oh, I already got out, so what real advice can you offer, other than buying an arsenal?

[roadtrip se]

If Candy Keane can come over to protect my stash, I'm good with it... Photog credit to Glockfaq.com, for more Candy go there....

[BUIZILLA]

Todd, i've got a pretty astute money protection guy in Nashville if your interested... HEAVY into Fidelity...

[MOP]

So MOP, are you sleeping on your money? If so, I suggest something shoulder-mounted, because the Gimmes have to be coming....

Actually it is invested temporarily in Hudson City Bank I expect to transfer most to an offshore account I have that is still doing well.

I get my down attitude from my buddy how is the local police lieutenant, he has not seen an escalation in crime like this in his 20+ years on the force. Maybe our area is worse then others, it was his advice to make sure we took extra precautions. We also have a large contingency of M13 out here believe me they are very active from what I hear. We have block monitors, every house leaves outside lights on at night and all but two houses are well armed on my block. We still have had four robberies on the block in the past two months! Maybe things are better inland not so here on the east coast.

Phil

[Ghost]

Moved everything into gold funds maybe a year ago,, with a little selective selling and re-buying, but have basically treaded water on it. Think I'll keep it there. So far I have only lost on inflation.

My SWAG at the stock bottom was based on the Japanese experience in a similar sort of real estate bubble bursting, where it went to about 1/4 of the peak I think. For us, that would be DOW ini the 3500-4000 range. Of course, I don't know much about what the Japanese did with monetary policy, so the rapid inflation I'm expecting yet here would tend to counteract those numbers, even if it doesn't counteract the value in today's dollars. Admittedly, not very scientific, but seemed like a reasonable historical example--better than anything else I'd heard.

[roadtrip se]

Todd, i've got a pretty astute money protection guy in Nashville if your interested... HEAVY into Fidelity...

I would like to hear more. I'll ring you up soon. Thxs.

[knots2u]

Pssst.....Buy platinum (http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/category/topicarticle.aspx?feed=MY&Date=20090209&ID=9590782&topic=TOPIC_OPINIONS&isub=2) if you believe the auto industry will come back. Palladium is the other white meat, err metal, in the jewelry market. Our gold orders are in the toilet. If the market comes back gold price will drop. Safest investment? Canned goods and alcohol.
My .02

[gcarter]

I'm a history buff.....
And judging from fairly recent history, I'm not too concerned. I remember the Japanese realestate bubble Ghost was referring to, apartments in Tokyo went to as much as $6M from $300K, if I remember correctly. They just about bought up NYC. They bought Pebble Beach for $5B and then sold it a few years later for less than $1B.
When things start getting goofy, sit on your hands unless you're in a position to sell and wait it out.
Inflation......... in '81', inflation was about 13%, prime was 20%, and unemployment was about 9%, I think, and the Dow was about 650.
That was only 5 years before the Dow adjusted in Oct of '86 at about 8000.
My point is to see what's happened in the last 20-30 years and compare to what's happening now. One big difference now versus '81 is then Congress didn't try to buy us out of the situation. Instead, taxes were lowered. This will be a real defining comparison of the two major theories of economics; tax stimulous vs. deficit monetary stimulous. I bet if things don't go according to plan, this administation and the Democratic Congress will never admit they were wrong.

Some patience will get you through most of these things. It's probably not a time when most of us will actually become wealthy.
Everything I have is tied up in my business. I have to stay profitable, or more truthfully, become profitable again.That's my singular goal.
Making money in this climate is a day to day challenge. I've never failed before, and I won't now.

[zelatore]

I bet if things don't go according to plan, this administation and the Democratic Congress will never admit they were wrong.


What's that got to do with it being a Democratic congress? Since when has ANY politician ever admitted to doing anything wrong???

[gcarter]

What's that got to do with it being a Democratic congress? Since when has ANY politician ever admitted to doing anything wrong???

I'm ever hopeful.:frown::crossfing:

[Lenny]

Making money in this climate is a day to day challenge. I've never failed before, and I won't now.

NEVER say never, I like that. That is where I am at too. In fact , getting very much Business "smarter" .

When this all blows over in 5-10, I hope, that "we" do not repeat the past and offshore our livelyhoods for short term gain. And I wish that NAFTA actually included Mexico and the gains from that environment but, alas, when that was signed China was in control.

I don't want to be a sadist, but, I am personally GLAD that 70,000 factories have now been closed in CHINA and 20 Million are out of work. And I personally hope that anyone that profited from this scenario by offshoring US/CAN jobs loses their shirt, EVERYTHING.

THAT makes me happy. :yes:

Buy home grown, and once we get back on our feet never forget that. I hope we learned from this. My cabinets will be overpriced at $10 but I will pay you $10 for that haircut. Bring it on home.

Good on ya George :yes: I like your approach.

[Ghost]

And I personally hope that anyone that made any coin from offshoring loses their shirt.

Good on ya George :yes: I like your approach.

I'm all for making it here and buying it here. I'm willing to pay more for stuff I need if it's made here, in the US and Canada, rather than pay people less overseas while also paying people here not to make it and do something useless instead. I want to see us drop the BS jobs and start providing ourselves with the truly essential goods and services. (I can easily see never buying another foreign-built car.) Time to circle the wagons, and ALSO clean house here at home. I think the attitude and sense of emergency has us ready for the former. The latter is going to be the harder part I think, because I truly believe people don't even know what needs to be done for it to be possible.

I, too, admire George's attitude.

[Marlin275]

Another way of looking at this whole problem is to cash in on this HERD mentality.
Good buddy of mine figured if the best banks in the world are taking the big hit how in the world is Suntrust bank worth more than Bank of America?

He shorted the stock at $12 and made $12,000. in two weeks on a $1.500 bet.
He could have made twice that amount but he got cold feet.

[osur866]

Well I guess I don't feel as bad as I did, I'm only -34% as of now. My crystal ball has been too cloudy to say when things will bounce back or where the bottom is, right now its not a matter of how to make money in this market but how not to loose anymore. Being 38 yrs. old I can only hope :crossfing: that it will or I'm going to be working for a Long, Long time. Just think Oboma and his liberal buddies will save the day for us :bonk:Steve

[DonziJon]

DOW Down another 250 or so today. I guess I'm down 50% by now on my retirement fund. I'm retired (67+). I havn't drawn on it yet. Don't need to. The market is doing it for me. Maybe they need it more than I do? It took over twenty years to get here....

I watched Patton last night. "Here..just shoot me here..RIGHT ON THe Nose"....:nilly: John

[Lenny]

4000 - ish is the number to buy in at and throw globs of coin at it..., That is MY prediction. :yes:

[Ghost]

4000 - ish is the number to buy in at and throw globs of coin at it..., That is MY prediction. :yes:

Pretty much right there with you, with my 3500-4000 bottom estimate.

[BUIZILLA]

*IF* it gets that low I think we're going to see a rapid inflationary spiral upwards, that we probably won't be able to keep pace with...

[Lenny]

*IF* it gets that low I think we're going to see a rapid inflationary spiral upwards, that we probably won't be able to keep pace with...

BINGO :yes: :yes: :yes:

[Ghost]

I think we will see crazy inflation. I was probably unclear before in what I was trying to say about that inflation inherently pushing up the nominal value of the market (acts as an upward force on the numbers) while the crappy economy acts the other way. My 3500-4000 guess is based relative to the value of today's dollar. Depending on what happened first, inflation might make the stock market LOOK like it was going up, even if the real buying power of sold shares was dropping. Of course, we all will get to pay capital gains taxes anyhow, even though we may be losing wealth and the gain is only an illusion. Apologies for the gloom and doom, just trying to clarify what I meant. -Mike

[chappy]

Looks like we'll get under the 7k mark today, especially after the 6.2% GDP drop flying around the press.

[The Hedgehog]

*IF* it gets that low I think we're going to see a rapid inflationary spiral upwards, that we probably won't be able to keep pace with...

Unfortunately we are probably going to see some price pressure anyway as a result of dumping all this cash into the economy. Also the Fed has been buying Agencies and MBS's like crazy to get mortgage rates down. When they liquidate those you will see a nice little upspike in rates. That should stave it off some but who knows what will ultimately happen with the money supply as well as the speeds of the different types of supply (M1, M2 and <3), commodity prices and all that good stuff. It will be one heck of a balancing act. Yeah, I am worried about stagflation too.

I have a fun scenario, let's forgive a bunch of consumer debt (especially those that should not have borrowed it in the first place), create a big national bank to lever them back up with the kind of debt that got us here in the first place and then rely on the upper income folks to support the debt and bail out social security. At that point in time we can really clamp down on the deficit.

[osur866]

And the beatings continue, below 7,000. 6,817 last check How low will we go :boggled:. Makes you want to :puke:

[MOP]

Now 6,763! Like Energizer just keeps ticking only the wrong way!