Gas and Boating

[donzi182003]

With this huge increase in gas I think that the boating industry is going to take a big hit. Its unaffordable to take long trips on the boat. I spoke to a boat dealer yesterday and they told me they have never seen such slow boat sales in their history . I am sure that this gas increase will definitely not help me sell my boat. I would be interested in knowing if any of you all are experiencing a noticeable difference and have had to slow down on your boating. Also wondering if all of you that have your boats for sale are worried like I am.

Just wondering,
Ed

[Reedy]

There is some shortage of gas due to Katrina, and a lot of gouging. I think it is all short term. In Dallas, TX we are paying between $ 2.89 and $ 3.09 for regular. My son is going to school in Mobile, AL; and from what he tells me they don't have any gas in town now. It might stick at $ 2.50, and yeah, it will be $ 3.00 to $ 4.00 eventually, but a boat is a luxury. Just think what pilots are thinking......

[myfinancialadviser]

Im in Michigan. On land gas is at least 3.00 a gallon and up to 3.50 in some areas.
I put gas in the boat last wednesday at 3.39 (89 octane) at my marina, went on a trip and when I returned on monday I needed more gas and I ended up paying 3.99 a gallon...... Thats just alot of money any way you cut it. Fortunately Michigan is a seasonal boating state and is near the close, never thought I would say that I hate putting my boat away for the winter. But at 600 dollars for a tank of gas that lasts me maybe two weeks.......




There is some shortage of gas due to Katrina, and a lot of gouging. I think it is all short term. In Dallas, TX we are paying between $ 2.89 and $ 3.09 for regular. My son is going to school in Mobile, AL; and from what he tells me they don't have any gas in town now. It might stick at $ 2.50, and yeah, it will be $ 3.00 to $ 4.00 eventually, but a boat is a luxury. Just think what pilots are thinking......

[Craig S]

Yeah. Boat sales must be tough right now. I would think truck sales - with a perceived high fuel consumption - would be the pitts, too. At this point, I agree with Reedy. $2.50 will be the new low price. And we will be euphoric over it.

[txtaz]

We went to the lake last weekend and I thought the boat was full. Well it wasn't, the needle started to bounce (read need gas fast). Went to the first marina and gas was $5.09. We passed and idled to the second marina. Gas was $2.99. I was elated and filled up. It's kind of wierd thinking $3 gas is a good deal.
Wes

[Lenny]

Wes, our water gas prices are the same or LOWER than on land. We have a "road tax" on land based fuels to compensate for road improvements. (yeah, right :rolleyes: )

Anyways, we pay about $3.75 US for Regular for a US gallon on land now.

Sadly, the CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) today, (just now) released World Market predictions for the investment community that forcast a $84/barrel for 2006 and $100/barrel for 2007 :eek:

I can burn $250 in a day in the little 18. That being said, I think I will be running a "little 18" for a long time to come and NOTHING larger. :(

[Craig]

I stopped to fill up my little commuter bike (GS500E Suzuki) the other day.

Wasn't empty; just needed topped off. It took 1.67 gal. ....$5.35 !!!!!! ($3.19 /gal. (MD)). Something seemed really wierd about that. I think it had something to do with the price "per gallon."

Whoa, that means $79.75 to fill up my 16' boat (25 gal.)!!!!!

Yikes!

Wanna buy a boat? (Just kidding) - Wanna buy a van? - Wanna buy a Chevy Caprice?

The motorcycle ain't for sale!

[CHACHI]

Fuel on the St. Lawrence river this past weekend, $3.999 per gal. Lots of big crusiers runnig around..perhaps their last hurrah. Will be hanging the boat this weekend , so I will have to see what next season brings. Ken

[Carl C]

Since when is anything cheap about boating? It'll have to get to 6 or 7 bucks to slow me down. I'm not rich; I just have my priorities right.:biggrin:

[Forrest]

Kent Engelke of Anderson & Strudwick, Inc. (http://www.andersonstrudwick.com), wrote the following on Tuesday in his daily Market Commentary (http://www.andersonstrudwick.com/dailyperspective.cfm). Mr. Engelke has been featured on just about all the financial networks because of the accuracy of his predictions in the market. He predicted the bust in the stock market. While everyone was still buying techs, as he was buying share in community banks and guess what? He made money all during the tech/internet bust. You can sign up for his daily market commentary for free (http://www.andersonstrudwick.com/signup.cfm).

Anyway, I highlighted the important stuff.



Market Commentary

Tuesday - 09-06-2005 As expected the unemployment data was a non-event. We think at the moment it is irrelevant as it was pre-Katrina. However, with the above written the report was solid as both surveys indicated strong hiring with little wage pressure. The unemployment rate fell again as the number of those who found work rose for the fourth consecutive month suggesting that labor conditions might be tightening.

Of course, the labor report was secondary as compared to the possible ramifications of oil and its potential impact upon monetary policy on the September 20 FOMC meeting. As most recall oil increased four fold in one year during the oil shock of 1973-74. Currently oil is up four fold in four years and we think prices are now starting to impact spending and core inflation.

The sixty-four dollar question is will jobs growth now begin to suffer as the economy is slowing down via oil? Will higher oil prices become inflationary? What is the probability of stagflation defined as anemic growth, higher employment and inflation?

First we think we have to create some stagflation parameters. The stagflation of the late 1970s is not even on the radar screen and the probability of such is around 1%. We define stagflation as 2% growth and 3% inflation as compared to the baseline forecast of 3% growth and 2% inflation.

We have written many times that a spike in oil predicated three of the last four recessions. Growth is slowing and we think it would have slowed even more if it were not for strong jobs growth. But gasoline at $3.50 gallon will slow the economy and increase core inflationary pressures.

As we wrote yesterday we think gas will fall rather dramatically for two simplistic reasons. First, the refining margins and supply will outstrip demand, especially when all become convinced that the current supply shock is temporary in nature. Secondly, if prices remain at current levels demand by definition will fall and the global economies will slow.

The FOMC meeting is September 20. A lot can happen between now and then. Will the Central Bank pause? The consensus changes on a minute-by-minute basis. We think a major determinate in its decision making process is whether or not the spike in gas prices impacts core prices. A possible guidepost could be price hikes at Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart accounts for 10% of all non-automotive retail sales whose motto is “We will not be undersold.”

The Central Bank’s primary objective is price stability. The worst nightmare scenario is an economy that has downside risk and upside inflation pressures. According to Federal Reserve analytics the increase in oil to around $60 barrel subtracts about 75 BP from growth and adds about 50 BP to inflation assumptions.

We ask rhetorically where is the new baseline measurement? Is it $50/barrel or $60? The current level had been around $30.

Some would suggest that the FOMC is facing its greatest hurdle. The economy is around full employment and there is the potential for wage inflation. Energy at this level will slow the economy and there is a distinct possibility that prices will be passed on to the end users.

What action will the Central Bank take on September 20? I think it is too early to concretely suggest any course of action as much depends upon the price of gas. We wrote Friday that we thought gas prices are subject to a large fall given that the supply disruption is only temporary and prices were considerably ahead of themselves hyped by emotion. We appear to be correct at this writing but we must state that any event (i.e. a rumor of tropical storm or terrorist event) could quickly reverse this decline.

However, eventually the laws of supply and demand will prevail and we think supply will increase greatly over the coming weeks permitting gas to fall back to the $1.70 level.

Will this occur? We will tell you in a month.

The economic calendar is as follows:

Tuesday: 60.0 ISM Non Manufacturing Index
Wednesday: 2.1% 2Q(f) Productivity; 1.4% ULC
Beige Book
Thursday: 315K Initial Jobless Claims
0.6% Wholesale Inventories

Last night the foreign markets were mixed. London was up 0.37%, Paris up 0.61% and Frankfurt up 0.55%. Japan was down 0.28% and Hang Seng down 0.44%.

The Dow should open about 50 points higher as the positive economic effects are now being discussed and oil prices are falling. The 10-year is off 8/32 to yield 4.06%.

Kent Engelke
Sr. Vice President/Capital Markets Strategist
Anderson & Strudwick, Inc.
804-344-3811


The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe reliable but is not guaranteed by us and is not to be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy the securities herein mentioned. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This firm and/or its individuals and/or members of their families may have a position in the securities mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of these securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise.

There is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed by Mr. Engelke relating to future performance of the stock and bond markets will be realized. Historical performance is no indication of future results.

I sure hope that he's right this time!

[Reedy]

Just for fun, can someone list the fuel capacity of all Donzi models?




Kent Engelke of Anderson & Strudwick, Inc. (http://www.andersonstrudwick.com/), wrote the following on Tuesday in his daily Market Commentary (http://www.andersonstrudwick.com/dailyperspective.cfm). Mr. Engelke has been featured on just about all the financial networks because of the accuracy of his predictions in the market. He predicted the bust in the stock market. While everyone was still buying techs, as he was buying share in community banks and guess what? He made money all during the tech/internet bust. You can sign up for his daily market commentary for free (http://www.andersonstrudwick.com/signup.cfm).

Anyway, I highlighted the important stuff.



I sure hope that he's right this time!

[Islander]

I'm hoping that with the increased cost of boating I can now find a parking space at my ramp. That means I'll be boating more often.

[goatee]

was out on the 3rd. filled up from around a quarter tank, 55 gallon tank. didnt see how many gallons, but it was 3.39 and took $153.13

who's got a calculator?

[goatee]

ok, 45 gallons. maybe we were less than one quarter than

[ChromeGorilla]

I think my 22 has a 52 gallon tank. Most I have ever put in it is 50 gallons.

[MOP]

With this huge increase in gas I think that the boating industry is going to take a big hit. Its unaffordable to take long trips on the boat. I spoke to a boat dealer yesterday and they told me they have never seen such slow boat sales in their history . I am sure that this gas increase will definitely not help me sell my boat. I would be interested in knowing if any of you all are experiencing a noticeable difference and have had to slow down on your boating. Also wondering if all of you that have your boats for sale are worried like I am.

Just wondering,
Ed

I as some of you know I am a boat dealer, I have been fortunate in doing just a little better then some. The gas is weeding out quite a few sales people and dealers alike, it started to worry people over last winter and was a big topic long before Katrina. Our industry had the slowest spring selling season in all the years that I have been at it, normally I sell 4-6 boats by May this year I sold my first boat in May! I am off about 40% from norm at this point and counting my blessings for surviving this long. Several of my close friends both dealers and brokers have or are going under.
I get a ton of feed back from many boat owners at many marinas, many have stayed at the dock more, those that do travel have reduced speed and say the have found considerable savings. Quite a few rationalize the cost against have to do the same by road and pay for hotels etc which they say would cost more.
Gas may fluctuate but will continue to rise this is a given, many countries are starting to gulp more and more. We need better alternatives and to get rid of gas guzzling vehicles, how forgetful & stupid we are the 70's taught us a soon to be forgotten lesson, we need more efficient engines to only slow the inevitable. The industrialized nations need to work together to find and USE better vehicle & technology, if they don't start working together we will all go down the tubes and "Definitely not laughing!"

You can slice it any way you want boating is one of the more expensive hobbies on earth!

MOP

[donzi182003]

MOP,

I have experienced the same thing with my boat. I have had it for sale since May and have had only 2 calls. Incredible. I have never seen such a slow market with boat sales. I am not a dealer and have very limited experience selling boats, but 2 calls in 4 months .. There's gotta be something going on. I have even reduced my asking price $3,000 thinking I was overpriced and my phone has still remained dormant. I hope something gives. Im convinced its the gas. Gas is so bad I am even buying a Lexus to save gas. I cant handle 10 MPG anymore its not about money it just pisses me off filling up $85 a tank every 2-3 days.

[MOP]

MOP,

I have experienced the same thing with my boat. I have had it for sale since May and have had only 2 calls. Incredible. I have never seen such a slow market with boat sales. I am not a dealer and have very limited experience selling boats, but 2 calls in 4 months .. There's gotta be something going on. I have even reduced my asking price $3,000 thinking I was overpriced and my phone has still remained dormant. I hope something gives. Im convinced its the gas. Gas is so bad I am even buying a Lexus to save gas. I cant handle 10 MPG anymore its not about money it just pisses me off filling up $85 a tank every 2-3 days.

Two things we need to get rid of the gas guzzlers and also get used to high prices!

[Islander]

Two things we need to get rid of the gas guzzlers and also get used to high prices!


I hear that the Toyota Prius is a wonderful tow vehicle. :biggrin:

[Marlin275]

Two things we need to get rid of the gas guzzlers and also get used to high prices!

You could say our boats are the gas guzzlers?
How do we pass that test?