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View Full Version : Final Presidential debate tonight, 9pm



Lenny
10-13-2004, 05:46 PM
6pm my time, 9pm yours. :D

Since this one is going to be on economics etc. I thought I would post a recent article that I read. This is JUST a post so go easy :) but it spells out what business here has been hearing a lot of lately. That being that there will be a huge correction in your dollar, but it will stimulate your GDP and bring MANY more manufacturing jobs back to the USA where, if it is more affordable using foreign currency, you will have a "supply can't meet demand scenario." 2 years ago I paid $1.61 of my money to buy 1$ of yours, (hence why my boats were all sooo ugly :D ), but today, I am paying $1.25 and my boats are starting to look better. :)

Remember, I am just posting this, not agreeing with it or trying to stir anything up on the election frontier. :)


U.S. dollar heading for a collapse, ex-Clinton adviser says


...and we all know Clinton had some of the BEST advisors... :yes: :biggrin:



Currency | Robert Reich warns of investing jitters



By James Baxter



Banff, Alta. -- The U.S. dollar is fast reaching a point at which foreign investors will abandon it and send it into a freefall, says Bill Clinton's former economic adviser.



Robert Reich told the Global Business Forum in Banff that record high budget and trade deficits, personal debt and a foreign policy that is alienating traditional allies, has the already slumping U.S. dollar headed for collapse. The U.S. already requires a daily infusion of $1.2 billion in foreign investment just to keep the greenback's decline under control, he said.



"The mainstream view is that the budget deficit (currently $422 billion U.S.) . . . is going to get larger," said Reich, who is an "informal adviser" to presidential hopeful John Kerry. "Simultaneously, the mainstream view is that there is no reason to believe that the trade deficit (approximately $600 billion) is going to shrink anytime soon.



"In fact, I see the dollar continuing to decline and I see at some point a tipping point where East Asian banks that have been trying to prop up the dollar, maintaining their exports (to the U.S.), because at some point it becomes a lousy investment."



Reich said global investors are already conducting significant amounts of business in Euros, not U.S. dollars.



The reason for Reich's speech to the audience of approximately 200 business leaders, mostly Canadians, was to explain why free trade has suddenly been revived as a great economic evil in the U.S.



In painting a bleak outlook for the U.S economy, Reich suggested the worst is yet to come, especially if President George W. Bush and the Republican party's agenda of tax less and spend more is re-elected in November.



"My upbeat message is that we don't have to have it like we have it," said Reich, who insisted Bush is not entirely to blame, but bears considerable responsibility for the economic straits facing the U.S.


"Deficits matter," he said.

"If you embark on a unilateral foreign policy and the rest of the world is upset with you, that has a boomerang effect on your global businesses. It can't help but (have an effect). So not only does fiscal policy matter, but your foreign policy cannot be completely divorced from your national economic policy.

Reich said regardless of who is the next leader, significant measures are going to be needed to control the budget deficit and to begin rebuilding the economy so that real manufacturing wages, which have been largely stagnant in the U.S. since the Reagan era in the 1980s, begin to grow.

He also said that while the U.S. is unlikely to retreat from global trade, it is also unlikely to aggressively pursue more open trade for the time being. That's because U.S. workers are suffering and are looking for something to blame, like outsourcing, he said, and politicians are being forced to play along.

"A lot of people are very, very willing to blame other countries for the loss of American jobs or the stresses on American wages," said Reich. "This blame is ill-founded.

"Nevertheless, in political terms, people talk about jobs being lost in the United States to China . . . or to India . . . or elsewhere."

Reich also tried to quiet fears among Canadians that Kerry is anti-free trade, saying only that Kerry wants to remove certain tax incentives that encourage companies to move a portion of their manufacturing offshore so that they can legally shelter money from income taxes. He said Kerry believes strongly in the value of trade and that Canadians shouldn't fear his policies.

Sad thing is though, as our dollar gets stronger in relation to yours, who is going to buy our exports as we certainly sell more than we buy? Of our "for export" GDP I believe 87% goes South to you guys. If you don't want to pay this "new" premium for the same product inflicted through dollar conversion where will our stuff go and ? and then, where will our people work? It is all tied together in a very fine balance.

gcarter
10-13-2004, 07:44 PM
The truth is Lenny, history repeats itself, over and over.
The first time I visited your country in 1950, WE paid a premium for exchange. I don't remember why, but we did.
In the '70's the US dollar was very weak, and many Europeans were complaining that gold and oil should be priced in Swiss Francs. Of course that idea was unworkable because there were only about 15% of the SF's necessary to do the job. (A funny reminder, just a few years later, the US doller and the British Pound met parity)
About the same time, the Japanese were here buying anything that wasn't tied down. Now where has their economy been for the last ten years. And haven't the Japanese unloaded virtually every piece of real estate they purchased for pennies on the dollar?
Clintons friends were all globalists, they all hated (and still do hate) a strong America, and a strong American foreign policy.
Now one of the main reasons for forming the EU and its monetary policy is to remove us from a place of prominance in the world. Suposedly the EU's econy is 30-40% larger than the US. They will NEVER succeed in their goal because;
1) Historically they've always hated each other and that's not going to change.
2) And for the same reason, they're not going to be successful in forming a United States of Europoe.
3) But the most important reason they're going to be unsuccesful is;
Collectively their still Socialists.
They will NEVER deregulate.
They will NEVER reduce taxes.
They will NEVER disband their Socialist beuracracies.
In other words, they will never get out of the way.
Peoples and nations may become Americanized, i.e., speak English, wear Levis, ride Harleys, watch American TV and movies, but they will never become the long term success we have because their governments will never deconstruct themselves. :lightning :lightning

Lenny
10-13-2004, 08:02 PM
Neat info George :yes: